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Dartmouth Engineering

The next major evolution of ChatGPT has been long-rumored. GPT-5, or whatever it will be called, has been mentioned vaguely numerous times over the past year. However, yesterday, OpenAI Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati shed some additional light on its capabilities. In an interview with Dartmouth Engineering that was posted on X (formerly Twitter), Murati described the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5 as if someone were growing from a high school student to a university student. “If you look at the trajectory of improvement, systems like GPT-3 were perhaps at the level of toddler intelligence,” Murati said. “And then systems like GPT-4 are more like the intelligence of a smart high school student. And then, in the next couple of years, we’re expecting Ph.D. intelligence for specific tasks. Things are constantly evolving and improving at a rapid pace.”

Interestingly, the interviewer inquired about the specific timetable, asking if it would be within the next year. Murati nodded and then clarified that it would be in a year and a half. If this is accurate, then GPT-5 might not be released until late 2025 or early 2026. Some might be disappointed to learn that the next significant step is still so far away. After all, the initial rumors about the launch time of GPT-5 suggested it would be in late 2023. And when that didn’t materialize, reports indicated it would be launched later this summer. Instead, what was released was GPT-4, which was an impressive achievement, but not the kind of quantum leap in intelligence that Murati is referring to here.

In terms of the claim about intelligence, it confirms what has been said about GPT-5 in the past. Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott claims that the next-generation AI systems will be “capable of passing Ph.D. exams” thanks to enhanced memory and reasoning capabilities. Murati admits that the “Ph.D.-level” intelligence only applies to certain tasks. “These systems are already at the human-level in specific tasks, and, of course, in many cases, they are not,” she said.

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Mira Murati: GPT-3 was at the toddler level, GPT-4 was a smart high school student, and the next generation, set to be released in a year and a half, will be at the Ph.D. level. pic.twitter.com/jyNSgO9Kev

— Tsarathustra (@tsarnick) June 20, 2024

It remains to be seen how GPT-5 will truly shape the future of artificial intelligence and what groundbreaking advancements it will bring. The anticipation and speculation continue to build as we await the arrival of this highly anticipated upgrade.